How unexpected was the 49.9°C temperature recorded recently? An introduction to extreme statistics

It has become very obvious that extreme weather is a clear and present danger. Globally, 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, and some scientists are predicting that 2024 will be humanity’s first year beyond the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial average temperature. On a personal level, just last week, my house in Melbourne was without power for more than 8 hours, due to a large-scale blackout in Victoria caused by strong winds and high temperatures.
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